A Hole to Climb Out

Fun fact: As of the 39 states which have publicly listed their set of candidates, Democrats have filed as candidates in at least 3,580 out of 5,411 seats in state houses which are open to contest this year. The number of seats contested by Democrats will likely increase to over two-thirds of contestable seats after 6 more seats list their primary candidates. 

In 34 states which are having state senate elections and have listed their candidates, Democrats have filed as candidates in at least 848 out of 1,972 available seats in partisan state senates which are having elections this year. This number is also likely to increase with six more states’ listings of state senate candidates, although only likely up to over half. 

Democrats right now are 500 seats shy of running for a full 2/3rds of state legislative seats. Democrats currently hold 2336 state house seats, 333 seats shy of half of the partisan total of 5338 partisan state house seats, and 809 state senate seats, 165 shy of half of the partisan total of 1948 state senate seats. So we’re likely running for at least 1244 more house seats and 39 more state senate seats (total 1283) than we currently have. 

We’re starting from twin holes of Republican state-legislature gerrymandering from 2010 and a greater concentration of the Democratic base in cities which may stymie any Democratic wave, but this is already the largest number of Democrats to run for state legislatures since 1982. With Democrats running for at least 4,428 out of 6,066 available total seats, we’re already running for two-thirds of available state legislative seats this year.

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