Marriage equality has lost a battle at the polls in Taiwan in a bad year for progressives there, but this result is likely to go to court as to whether it is constitutional at all.

First thought: Yikes. This is almost Prop 8 levels of bad. Almost.

Second: We should really lay the blame for this on the DPP and Tsai Ing-Wen. They took NO action for LGBT people since they won the last national election (unlike what they promised), and allowed the opposition to set this absurd frame against LGBT people and their rights. The DPP deserved to lose in the local election as badly as they did, and I expect them to lose again in 2020 no matter how they treat LGBT people after this referendum.

Third: This places the government between their own statutory law regarding the effects of referendums and the Constitutional Court regarding their interpretations of law. The ruling will go into effect by next year in spite of this referendum, but how will the DPP implement it in order to placate voters? If the conservative KMT wins in 2020, how will they implement it or recognize it?

Fourth: A civil unions/partnerships bill (especially one akin to Thailand’s, or the one that was approved by voters as a second-class relationship recognition) would still run afoul of the ruling, and by now may not be recognized in most countries which have moved from civil partnerships to marriage equality as far as spousal visas are concerned. Why would Taiwan go this route if even the United States, Taiwan’s biggest ally, is stripping spousal visas from unmarried same-sex partners of U.S.-residing diplomats?

Fifth: Almost ALL of the pan-green referendum questions failed at the ballot this year. “Pan-Green” = progressive AND pro-independence from China. The DPP, which is a pan-green party, failed miserably at the polls in city council and mayoral seats this election. This was not a good year for progressives – be they anti-nuke, pro-LGBT, pro-independence – at the ballot box. Pro-LGBT activists were caught off-guard and were out-organized and out-funded, which is why marriage equality went down 70-20. They need to retake the frame from the reactionaries, not rely on the DPP or the pan-green camp, and build coalitions to weaken such a high opposition in a record-high turnout year.

Sixth: This was Taiwan’s first time with this referendum process. What were the problems with it? Vote integrity is a must, and the process which took place should be vetted for any potential failings or indiscretions.