I have lots of thoughts about this past week and its potential impact on November.
- State House: 160/180 Dems, 138/180 GOP
- State Senate: 46/56 Dems, 47/56 GOP
- All statewide executive and congressional seats contested by both parties.
Georgia has more legislative districts than there is any capacity for either major party to contest.
In 2020, with 141 nominees, Democrats achieved their highest State House popular vote share in decades, 48.66 to Republicans’ 51.31 (while winning only 42.78 of House seats).
With 160 nominees, this State House election will serve as more of a combined popular vote measure for the Democrats, given the sheer number of decades-uncontested areas which will see Democrats run for the first time this century.
Similarly, in the State Senate with 46 nominees, Democrats could see an increase in the popular vote, with the highest number of nominees since 1992 (which had 48 nominees).
Democrats’ largest share of the popular vote may have been in 2018, when 38 nominees won 45.58%. Weirdly, Dems’ vote share in the Senate decreased by 0.16 in 2020, despite running 42 nominees and flipping one seat.
In Congress, Democrats have only ran in all 14 districts since 2020, when they achieves 49% of the popular vote. Since then, while running in all districts, they’ve declined to 47% in 2022 and 2024, which may increase in this midterm environment.
1990 was the last time that Democrats ran nearly as many nominees for the General Assembly, with 162 Democrats running for House and 50 running for Senate. 1992 also comes close, with 154 Democrats for House and 48 for Senate.
Between us and TX/NC/FL
Meanwhile, this year, Texas Democrats filed for all federal, state legislative and statewide offices for the first time in decades. The campaign for all of Texas’ 150 state house seats may have an impact upward on the top-of-ticket races for James Talarico’s run for U.S. Senate and Gina Hinojosa’s Governor, with downballot Democrats being motivated to campaign throughout rural Texas and run up the numbers. Democrats led the primary ballot statewide on March, so maybe it’s a sign of things to come.
OTOH, its crazy how Florida Democrats ran for all 120 state house seats in 2024 but still lost 7 seats and got bodied in the popular vote. Never want to be in that position in Georgia. Hopefully Texas Democrats don’t end up in the same position with running for all 150 state house seats.
North Carolina Democrats have challenged up to 119 state house districts (out of 120) in the last handful of elections, and (unlike Florida) won the popular vote in 2024. That election, while not flipping the NC House, did flip one seat to break the Republican supermajority on paper. The primary, on the same day as Texas’, removed the remaining conservadems who collaborated repeatedly with Republicans to overturn Governor Josh Stein’s vetoes.
Texas Democrats can win the State House popular vote and improve upon their then-record 2018 popular vote performance, when they ran in a record 132 districts to gain 46.58% (and winning 44% of the seats), outstripping Lupe Valdez’ performance for governor but behind Beto O’Rourke’s performance for Senate.
As is the case with TX, FL, and NC, GA Dems will still run up against the sometimes-permeable wall of Republican gerrymandering. For obvious reasons, this year is one of those permeable times. Maybe not for Florida Democrats (unless they fix what messed them up in 2024 and prior), but definitely for Democrats in Texas, North Carolina and Georgia.
After our success for the two PSC seats last year, maybe this is our year to flip Georgia blue.
