SCOTUS under Roberts frontloads cases to curry good press first before giving their Republican base, especially the conservative litigation lobby, the red meat they want at the end of the term;
SCOTUS under Roberts only rejected the worst interpretation of the independent state legislature theory in #MoorevHarper and allowed for future litigation on the theory;
SCOTUS under Roberts only ruled against Alabama in #AllenVMilligan because Alabama did not present (read: lie) well enough in favor of their current congressional map, but SCOTUS still allowed for future litigation to potentially gut Section 2 (see Kavanaugh’s concurrence).
SCOTUS ruled that affirmative action may be justified if one writes an essay about individual impacts of race discrimination in one’s life, and that will likely warrant further litigation. A boon for the conservative litigation lobby;
SCOTUS in #303Creative carved a religious exception to nondiscrimination laws that will also invite further litigation. Another boon for the conservative litigation lobby.
On 303Creative
The wrong question in response to the 303creative case is “can I deny service to right-wing Christians/Jews/Muslims”
The right question is “where in this country are dissenting people vulnerable to monopolies or dominance by businesses who support this decision and how can I help”
Catholic and Christian hospital, adoption, shelter and related systems who dominate whole regions of states should be delighted by this decision. They have a opening to drive a truck through nondiscrimination laws, with few federal options since we did not pass the Equality Act last year.
On Affirmative action
The ADOS movement, including its paragons such as Yvette Carnell and Sandy Darity, has demanded strict limits for reparations to descendants of antebellum slavery in the United States. In fact, it was one of the most rampant and angry demands directed by testimony to the California Reparations Task Force, which issued their final report on June 29; it was also supported by California Secretary of State Shirley Weber.
This Supreme Court ruling, which has struck down race-based affirmative action and inverted the 14th Amendment into itself, likely opens the doors for a redirection of affirmative action towards lineage-based affirmative action.
Alabama’s legislature will approve a new congressional map with a second VRA district by July 21. The plaintiffs’ remedial map, which goes for a least-change approach, might be adopted, but several submissions have been sent.
SCOTUS rejecting Louisiana’s appeal defending their congressional maps is only a partial victory for fairer maps. The case was sent back to the 5th Circuit to decide whether to continue hearing Louisiana’s appeal or to send it back to the Middle District of Louisiana which already ruled against the map. We shall see, but either Louisiana or the 5th Circuit can draw this one out.
The denial of cert to Ohio’s case defending their shit maps is not a victory for fair maps at all. Unless Ohio defeats Issue 1, most other attempts at redistricting reform in that state are f**ked.
Still nothing regarding Rose v. Raffensperger from the 11th Circuit, beyond both plaintiffs and the state sparring in dueling letters to the court asserting Milligan and Gingles‘ applicability to the case immediately following the Milligan decision.
I tried redrawing a map with a second majority-Black district for Louisiana’s PSC. I don’t think it worked.
I couldn’t imagine this decision happening under this court, but I guess “bullying works” (sometimes). Plus, it’s a sign that SCOTUS’ right-wing majority may be more monstrous in Moore v Harper (independent state legislature theory), SFAI v. Harvard/SFAI v. UNC (affirmative action in higher ed), and Haaland v. Brackeen (Indian Child Welfare Act constitutionality), all to be announced this month.
Notable: Given it’s Pride Month, The National Black Justice Coalition may be the only LGBT rights organization to issue a statement in response to Allen v. Milligan. I would have expected The National LGBT Task Force, who organized the Queer the Census project for both 2010 and 2020, to have issued a statement as well. Even with the anti-LGBT backlash going on right now, this decision does have implications for Black LGBT people in the South, increasing somewhat the chances that they can run for and win higher office. Davante Lewis’ 2022 win in the runoff for Louisiana’s PSC was a big, understated victory for Black LGBT people in this region.
Impact(s)
What is happening or is most likely to happen nationwide, based on Election Twitter’s ideas:
Alabama legislature will be forced to redraw their congressional map to add a second VRA district.
Louisiana is asking SCOTUS for oral argument in their appeal against the Ardoin case regarding Louisiana’s own congressional map. Highly likely that SCOTUS will dismiss the appeal and force Louisiana legislature to redraw for a second VRA district.
North Carolina legislature likely to not go as hard as they wanted to go on obliterating most remaining Dems in congressional and legislative maps.
Florida’s state and federal cases regarding the former FL13 will be slightly supported by this decision, but not too much, since those cases rest on other laws, such as the federal 14th Amendment as well as the state constitution’s analogues to Section 2 and (the former) Section 5 of the VRA (citing Andrew Pantazi of the Jacksonville Tributary).
Dems were worried about their chances for winning back the House next year after the North Carolina Supreme Court gave Republicans multiple wins. After this, there’s a potential net gain of at least 2.5 seats. Or, if we want to go crazy with wishcasting, as many as +10-12. Maybe enough to wash the gains to be made by Republicans in North Carolina.
Very unlikely to see any redistricting in Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Ohio or Wisconsin resulting from Allen.
There is ongoing litigation in North Dakota by Native American nations on Section 2 grounds regarding legislative maps.
Credit to U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell (D), who actively campaigned for a plurality-minority second district in Alabama and against packing Black voters into a single district, as highlighted in this 2021 Atlantic article.
Now on to Georgia:
It’s debatable how the Republican legislature could redraw their congressional map to do the bare minimum of complying with the Allen decision. The best-case scenario is perhaps restoring Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bordeaux’s old districts, restoring the 2020 status quo of 8 GOP-6 Dem. The shortest-term worst case is simply re-packing Black Metro Atlanta voters into four districts, but that would leave lots of other left-trending territory surrounding these districts vulnerable in the longer term to Dem candidates.
There is ongoing litigation (Georgia State Conference of the NAACP v. Georgia) challenging the 2022 congressional and legislative maps, filed by the NAACP state conference, GALEO, and Georgia Coalition for the Peoples Agenda. Also ongoing against these maps: Grant v. Raffensperger, Alpha Phi Alpha v. Raffensperger, Prendergrass v. Raffensperger. There’s ongoing VRA Section 2 litigation in 30 cases across 10 states, and there are more to come.
Public Service Commissions
Let’s talk about the PSC, both in Georgia and other states:
PSC At-large voting: There has been radio silence from the 11th Circuit on the state’s appeal in Rose v. Raffensperger since oral arguments last December. Hopefully the Allen decision will make an impact. At least two of the plaintiffs to whom I’ve talked, Rev. James Woodall and Wanda Mosley, are confident that this decision will help them prevail against the state. Also, I wonder if Judge Nancy Abudu, a Biden appointee who was just confirmed to the 11th Circuit, will join in or recuse herself from whatever ruling that comes out on the appeal.
PSC Redistricting: There’s a petition that has been filed by plaintiffs in Rose v Raffensperger with Judge Grimberg in the Northern District of Georgia to redraw the PSC map which had been approved in 2022 during qualifying week (which placed Democratic PSC District 2 nominee Patty Durand at odds with Raffensperger).
Dems filed a bill (HB 841) to change the PSC election method this past session, but it died before getting heard in committee.
See my prior posts about the GA PSC and VRA: 1, 2.
There’s also a question as to whether the Georgia PSC should be entirely drawn around entire counties. To compare, Louisiana’s PSC districts are mostly drawn around entire counties, except for Davante Lewis’ District 3, which, similarly to Troy Carter’s Congressional District 2, snakes through portions of Orleans Parish all the way into East Baton Rouge Parish. If, resulting from Allen, LA-CD2 may be redrawn in order to accommodate a second VRA opportunity district stretching from Baton Rouge up Louisiana’s border with Mississippi all the way to the northeast corner of the state (As proposed by FiveThirtyEight and in multiple proposals by both Democrats and Republicans last year), then what of Louisiana’s current LPSC map? Should Foster Campbell’s District 5 be redrawn into a second VRA-compliant LPSC district?
Louisiana’s current PSC mapLouisiana’s 2022 congressional mapMy idea of a VRA-compliant PSC map, districts highlighted
And if so, what of Georgia’s PSC map? Could Districts 3 and maybe 2 be redrawn to create VRA-compliant opportunity districts? District 3, centered around only Fulton, Clayton and DeKalb counties, could count as a racial packing of Black voters in a state where Black people account for 33% of the population. The legislative Democratic caucus submitted a map in which District 2 would obviously be an opportunity district with 33% Black VAP. And does District 3 really need to be contiguous with the core counties of Metro Atlanta? Lots of opportunities here.
the DPG’s proposed 2022 PSC mapThe approved Republican map
And finally, should Alabama’s PSC, an at-large body of 3 members with no districts, be given this treatment as well? If the plaintiffs prevail in Rose and force changes in Georgia, there is an opportunity for Black Alabamians to sue under Section 2.
Pennsylvania Dems held their one-seat lower-house majority in a special election, and Joanna McClinton remains Speaker.
Nevada Dems advanced their NPVIC amendment to the next legislative session. Needs another majority vote in both houses in 2025 before it goes to the ballot in 2026.
Washington State legalized building more apartments. Still some more work to do, and it may take some time before homelessness is less rampant in the Seattle area.
red flag’ law allowing family and others to petition a court to have guns removed from a person’s possession if they’re found to be a significant danger to themselves or others
helping offenders re-integrate into society and increasing crime prevention efforts
repealing defunct bans on adultery, fornication and consensual non-vaginal sex
expanding the right for a free public defender to cases where a person appeals a district court’s decision on a child protection case;
prohibiting peace officers from joining or supporting hate or extremist groups;
requiring places of public accommodation to provide closed-captioned television when a television is available;
allowing lawsuits seeking damages to continue after the person suing has died;
creating a carjacking crime and establishing penalties;
prohibiting law enforcement agencies from retaliating against, or penalizing a peace officer who intercedes against or reports another officer or employee use of excessive force;
creating a crime of organized retail theft;
prohibiting the state and counties from using private prisons;
restricting strip searches of detained juveniles;
establishing a supervised release board to review the cases of minors sentenced to mandatory life in prison;
establishing the Office of Missing and Murdered Black Women and Girls;
expanding the crime of an assault motivated by bias to include bias against a person due to the person’s gender, gender identity, or gender expression;
changing the first-degree possession offense to equate the possession of fentanyl with the possession of heroin;
requiring the state, instead of counties, to pay for medical examination costs for criminal sexual conduct victims;
requiring carbon monoxide alarms in hotel rooms;
granting early conditional release to inmates who make sufficient progress toward rehabilitation; and
establishing a Clemency Review Commission and modifying Board of Pardons’ operations.
HF37: CROWN Act, prohibiting discrimination on hair style and texture
SF13: Establishing Juneteenth as a paid state holiday
HF146/SF63: deeming Minnesota a refuge state for transgender people and protecting them from legal repercussions for traveling to Minnesota for gender-affirming health care
HF16/SF23: banning “conversion therapy” for minors and vulnerable adults
HF1/SF1: codifying abortion rights and reproductive health care for all
HF7/SF4: mandating Minnesota utilities transition to carbon-free energy by 2040
HF28/SF28: A bill restoring voting rights to people still on parole or probation
HF4/SF27: A bill allowing undocumented residents to obtain driver’s licenses
HF1071/SF667: A bill codifying federal Indian Child Welfare Act language into Minnesota law
HF5/SF123: A bill providing free breakfast and lunch for all Minnesota students in the majority of schools
Saw a few posts marking the one-year anniversary of the kiss between Luz Noceda and Amity Blight (aka “Lumity”) in The Owl House season 2 episode “Clouds on the Horizon”. Quite a cultural moment for animation and LGBT representation in mass media, particularly for the Disney behemoth. They fed the fandom with this one.
This moment, among others, netted The Owl House a 2023 nomination for a GLAAD Media Award for Outstanding Kids and Family Programming (Animated), even though it went to Netflix’s Dead End: Paranormal Park. I honestly wish that GLAAD Media Awards would allow for a first, second and third place winner for each category, now that they’ve expanded the nominee list for many categories to ten entries.
But still, Dana Terrace can say that she expanded Disney’s boundaries.
Massachusetts: H1640/S913 no closer to passage for the last five months. They have until November 15.
Michigan: two three House bills (HB4431, HB4432, HB4433), all introduced 4/19/23. Twitter user @LGBTmarriage notes that neither bill repeals “the ‘gross indecency’ laws that also ban consensual private gay and straight sex (750.338, 338a and 338b).” Hope to see this fixed. Unlike the other three legislatures, Michigan has all year to get this done.
Minnesota: Some of the text of HF91/SF70 folded into HF2890/SF2909, passed and signed into law. Gay sex is now statute-legal in Minnesota, as well as “adultery” and “fornication”; abortion-related language in HF91 still being worked out before the session ends on Monday (May 22). Thanks to Rob Salerno @LGBTMarriage for the news.
ONCE AGAIN, it really shouldn’t be taking this long to remove some archaic swords of Damocles from over the heads of LGBT people in blue trifecta states.
Also, the Texas bill died before getting a vote in the House. Of course.
But anyway, two down, two blue trifectas with anti-gay-sex laws to go. Progress.
All the way back in 2009, under another name, I wrote something about the “addventure“, wondering if we’ll ever get an addventure in webcomic form. I remember being emailed afterward by Allen Firstenberg, who coined the “add-venture” term in 1987-1988 when he created an add-on story for the Nyack High School BBS, which he later ported to the early World Wide Web in 1994. I need to find that email someday. He’s currently a software developer and published writer. Good to see he’s doing ok.
The addventure idea, combining the “round-robin” and “choose-your-own-adventure” narrative ideas, has been used over the decades in both wiki and non-wiki formats.
Today I learned about “Endless VN“, a visual novel, in which all assets of the game are automatically generated from AI prompts while being played, allowing for theoretically-endless gameplay and theoretically-infinite numbers of plot divergences. From what I’m seeing so far, the AI generation is resulting in the typical deformed body parts expected of current AI generated media. But as a proof-of-concept, I can see some of the merit of this idea.
Also want to note this project, Myujen, which is intended to allow for creation of visual novels in VR.
If EndlessVN, Myujen and related platforms can actually realize a never-ending, AI-driven visual novel “addventure”, how much closer will we get to the “metanovels” depicted in Rudy Rucker’s novel Postsingular?
Maryland: HB0131, decriminalizing oral sex, is still waiting for governor’s signature
Massachusetts: H1640/S913 have been reconciled and are sitting in the Joint Committee on the Judiciary
Michigan: two House bills (HB4431 and HB4432), both introduced 4/19/23. Twitter user @LGBTmarriage notes that neither bill repeals “the ‘gross indecency’ laws that also ban consensual private gay and straight sex (750.338, 338a and 338b).” Hope to see this fixed.
Minnesota: HF91 making the rounds in committees. Companion SF70 is in second reading.
ONCE AGAIN, it really shouldn’t be taking this long to remove some archaic swords of Damocles from over the heads of LGBT people in blue trifecta states.
Somewhat honorable mention goes to Texas where a bill to repeal the state’s highly-discriminatory ban on gay sex has received majority sponsorship for potential passage. This is somewhat honorable because the bill (drafted by a Democrat) contains a “compromise” proviso preserving existing legislation stating that “homosexuality is not a lifestyle acceptable to the general public” (Christian bullshit as usual).
