Are Alabama’s Democrats Ready? Are the South’s Democrats Ready?

Politics, , , , , ,

I think about the following:

  • Out of the former Confederate states in the period between 1870 and 1901, only South Carolina sent at least two or more members to the U.S. House.
  • Georgia, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia all sent one member at a time.
  • Texas and Tennessee never sent any members in the (post-)Reconstruction era
  • and Arkansas has never sent any African Americans to Congress to the present day

Now, Alabama will likely send two Black members to the U.S. House for the first time. And Louisiana is within spitting distance of doing the same for the second time in their history; the first time such a thing happened was in 1993, when William Jefferson (D-LA02 and Cleo Fields (D-LA04) went to the 103rd Congress.

The big question which sticks out for me is whether the Alabama Democratic Party will be prepared for this moment.

They certainly weren’t when Doug Jones won the once-in-a-blue-moon Senate special election in December 2017. In fact, the Alabama Democratic Party, the statewide Black Democratic club ran by Joe Reed, actively fought Jones for influence over the party’s bylaws and structure. The fight continues to this day, years after Jones lost his Senate seat to some bigoted football coach. And it seems like the DNC will have to pry some control of the ADP from the Conference. The Conference also tried to intervene twice in the Allen v. Milligan case to advocate for a more Black-majority 2nd and 7th district (to no avail), which went against the strategy of the plaintiffs as well as Rep. Terri Sewell in favor of two opportunity districts.

Now, however, with Sewell likely to win again in the 7th, the question remains as to the impact of whoever wins the 2nd congressional district. It’s most likely that the winner may be Black, or that whoever wins will have the support of the Black voting-age population in the 2nd district. But will the winner have more of a role in the Alabama Democratic Party? Will the campaign to defend both the 7th and the new 2nd district arouse the party out its current shape?

The same can be asked about Louisiana’s Democratic Party. It is heading to another era in the statewide wilderness with the terming-out of Governor John Bel Edwards and the likely election of a Republican governor. The party has been beaten down badly in other political aspects due to a massive decline in white rural support. Besides retaining Foster Campbell on the PSC in 2026 (he had his closest election in 2020), the other favorable political aspects above the state legislature have been:

  • the election of Davante Lewis to the PSC in 2022
  • the possible creation of a second opportunity congressional district around Baton Rouge for 2024

This is why I look forward to the impact of Allen v. Milligan on Southern elections. All of these issues can be challenged in federal court:

  • the potential second opportunity district in Louisiana
  • the reform of Mississippi’s State Supreme Court districts
  • Alabama’s Public Service Commission election method
  • Georgia’s Public Service Commission election method and maps
  • Texas’s Supreme Court election method
  • Texas’ State Board of Education maps
  • Texas’s Railroad Commission election method
  • Louisiana’s Supreme Court election method

Michigan Democrats at the halfway point

Politics

The Michigan Legislature adjourned sine die early this session because of the election of two Democratic House members to mayorships, which ended up splitting the House until replacements win their special elections.

Unfortunately, due to a combination of constitutional and statutory constraints, the special elections may not be held for months into 2024, and the next session will be significantly cut short.

I’m thinking about what bills didn’t make it to the finish line:

  • bills to end prison gerrymandering
  • bills to repeal sodomy laws on the books
  • a more comprehensive bill to repeal bans on abortion

Michigan voters of whatever persuasion still have time to place citizen initiatives on the 2024 ballot. A few examples from Ballotpedia:

    • National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Initiative
    • Legalization of Psilocybin Mushrooms and Other Plants and Fungi Initiative
    • Allow Prisoners to Earn Sentencing Credits Initiative
    • $15 Minimum Wage Initiative
    • Decertify 2020 Election Initiative
    • Prohibit Installation of Utility-Scale Solar Installations on Agricultural-Zoned Land Initiative
    • Provide that the Executive Branch and State Legislature are Subject to Public Information Requests Initiative
    • Prohibit Property Taxes Amendment

    Ohio’s Direct Democracy Survives and Thrives

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    Ohio defeated a proposed amendment meant to make ballot initiatives impossible, despite the state government using every possible trick to help it pass, including placing the question on the ballot for August.

    Apparently, the turnout exceeded most primary votes in the last several election cycles since 2016. The result also largely broke down by population density, with Democratic-heavy counties joined by voting No. The result largely bucked the trend of past presidential and statewide elections, with substantial crossover voting from Republicans who opposed the ballot question.

    Winners:

    • Both November 7 ballot initiatives:
      • Right to Make Reproductive Decisions Including Abortion Initiative, on the ballot November 7 (passed)
      • Marijuana Legalization Initiative, on the ballot November 7 (passed)
    • At least 3 potential ballot initiatives working for the 2024 ballot:
      • Citizens Redistricting Commission Amendment
      • Minimum Wage Increase Initiative (for $15)
      • Constitutional and Legal Rights Relating to Public Safety, Including Prohibiting Qualified Immunity Initiative
    • former Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, who is leading the effort for the Citizens Redistricting Commission Amendment and was infamously snubbed by the Ohio Republican-supermajority legislature

    Losers:

    • Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R)
    • Governor Mike DeWine (R)
    • Attorney General David Yost (R)
    • The Ohio Republican Legislative Supermajority
    • Ohio Chamber of Commerce
    • Anti-choice reactionaries

    Thoughts on Meta Quest 3

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    VR devices like the Meta Quest 3 are out of my priority zone right now, but I remain fascinated in the advances made with augmented/mixed reality over the last decade.

    It took so much technology and so many price reductions, but now we’re so much closer to the Dennou Coil future. Some are now taking their Quest 3 headset outside and out of their homes, even to public places, risking being called “glassholes”, at least to test the limits of current mixed reality headsets.

    (At the very least, Meta backed off of making heavy references to work/enterprise when launching the Quest 3, so this is likely to be more successful a device than the ill-fated Quest Pro.)

    The Apple Vision Pro, when it comes out, will likely exceed the Quest 3 in polish and some technology features (I.e., the 12 cameras inside the Vision Pro). The one I look forward to the most is the “Spatial Video” format, or 3D semi-volumetric video which you can zoom in to see different angles and plays in a sort of foggy box at the edges. I’m seeing demos alleging comparative spatial video in Meta Quest 3, but it doesn’t exactly seem as apparent to me.

    I’m still wondering exactly who, or which demographic, will likely afford a laptop-on-the-face like the Vision Pro, compared to the game-console-on-the-face that is the Quest 3. I guess we’ll find out.

    Third Time’s the Charm for Citizen Redistricting Initiatives in Ohio

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    What will be the difference between 2005, 2012 and 2024 for citizen redistricting in Ohio?

    Let’s look at the 2012 proposal.

    The Voters First Ohio campaign went to court against the Ohio Ballot Board over the language of the measure. The Ohio Supreme Court ruled for the campaign, but when the Ballot Board met again, the ballot language was doubled in length. 

    The opponents of the 2012 measure, including both big business lobbies and the boards of at least two major newspapers, decried the alleged “lack of [electoral] accountability” of a citizen redistricting commission, as well as the mandated funding for the commission’s work. 

    Both newspapers instead extolled the idea of requiring a bipartisan supermajority from a politician-majority commission for passage of a map, and the proposal went down in defeat.

    This was said before Ohio, in two legislatively-referred amendments in 2015 and 2018, replaced the Ohio Apportionment Board with the Ohio Redistricting Commission, which did no better in 2021-2023 at drawing fairer maps despite requiring bipartisan supermajority approval. Wonder if they changed their tune?

    The CNP initiative seems to keep most of the 2012 proposal. Differences:

    • The CNP proposal would involve a bipartisan panel of only retired judges to screen potential candidates for the commission. The 2012 plan would have involved sitting appellate court judges in the selection of commissioners.
    • CNP’s plan bans prison gerrymandering. 

    The use of retired judges effectively sidesteps one of the sticking points of the 2012 plan, which drew the opposition of both the Ohio Judicial Conference and the Ohio State Bar Association for this reason. This amendment, certainly, needs as many supporters, or as few opponents, as possible.

    There is no telling whether the big business lobbies have changed their tune. The Ohio Farm Bureau Association and Ohio Chamber of Commerce, both of which publicly opposed Issue 2 in 2012, both backed August 2023 Issue 1, which would have seriously hobbled direct democracy in the state. The failure of that amendment may not say too much about the fate of CNP’s initiative, but it does show the deep entrenchment of the political elite in Ohio that such a blatantly anti-democratic proposal as August 2023 Ohio Issue 1 would see the light of day.

    But the repeated failures of citizen redistricting proposals at the ballot box, or at least the failures of their campaigns, need to be considered as teaching moments for those who assume that it will win this round in 2024. In addition, the chicanery of oppositional officeholders like the Secretary of State, who changed the ballot summary language of November 2023 Ohio Issue 1 to reflect Christian right-wing beliefs about abortion, should not be ignored (even if his actions failed to stop the measure from victory at the polls). Victory is not certain, and what those past campaigns endured should help this campaign improvise, adapt and overcome in 2024.

    Let’s also see if the CNP proposal makes it to the ballot at all. After being approved by the Attorney General (who accepted it after previously rejecting it twice) and Ohio Ballot Board, the campaign recently voluntarily reset the clock after discovering a typo, then rewrote the petition and sent it back to the Attorney General, who approved it a second time. It now awaits the Ohio Ballot Board’s decision before it is finally set to begin collecting signatures.

    Saporta Report: “A decision on the races that time forgot may be near”

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    Saporta Report cites attorney Bryan Sells regarding when we can hope for an impending decision in Rose v Raffensperger.

    It would make sense for a decision in Rose v Raffensperger to come before Thanksgiving, which quickly precedes the start of the special legislative session on November 29. As stated in Saporta Report, this decision will be cited for decades. It will have an impact on voting rights, redistricting and other types of litigation, not only in the 11th Circuit but elsewhere. 

    But I go back to the VRA litigation saga from 2011-2016 against at-large FPTP elections in jurisdictions like Fayette County, GA, or to the 100+ court cases since 1982 in Georgia alone which replaced at-large districts with single-winner district elections for city councils, school boards, county commissions and legislative districts. 

    I would be very surprised if the 11th Circuit sided with Georgia on the PSC’s at-large election method. But the clock is ticking on the 11th Circuit to make a decision: 

    • the special session on congressional and legislative districts starts on 29 November;
    • then a regular session to start in January 2024 for 40 days, which is a chance to change statute law regarding PSC elections;
    • then a general election to be held in November in which at least another PSC seat (District 5, held by Republican Tricia Pridemore) will be on the ballot (and maybe the two held by Echols and Johnson?), as well as a chance for voters to change Article IV Section 1 of the state constitution regarding the PSC.

    On the flip side, the 11th Circuit could rule the case unjusticiable and remove itself from the case. Or they could rule for the plaintiffs but then the state could simply move the PSC to an appointed body instead (like most states). Who knows.

    The next few weeks will be interesting to watch.

    Idea: A Trans-African Waterway

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    Perhaps more than any other Pan-African political or economic unification, I would think that a canal network linking the Congo, Zambezi and (maybe) Nile Rivers would be the biggest economic coup for the African continent.

    Inland canals are perhaps one of the biggest reasons for the ridiculous amount of power of the United States. The Eastern portion of the United States is technically an island surrounded by ocean and sea on one side, rivers and canals on the other.

    So linking the Congo to the Zambezi would essentially make southern Africa an island separate from the rest of the continent. Same for eastern Africa from Egypt to northern Mozambique if the Congo is linked to the Nile.

    But if it is ever built, I have questions:

    • what inland cities would grow from this waterway? (DR Congo has quite a few inland port cities)
    • what environmental impact would likely happen?
    • how much traffic would it divert from the Suez Canal, or around the Cape of Good Hope, for those ships which want to cross into the Indian from the Atlantic?
    • how would this impact agriculture?
    • how would this impact mining?
    • how would this impact hydroelectric power, especially with Kariba Dam?

    I’ve found some articles on the subject:

    I’ve also had fantasy/scifi ideas about what Africa would look like with more islands (and maybe archipelagos) like East and Southeast Asia. Maybe this is the closest that we can possibly get to that idea.

    For the Southern portion, I would call it “SADC Island”, after the Southern African Development Community, of which all the countries touching the – Angola, DR Congo, Zambia

    Democrats Clean Up in Odd-Year Midterm

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    • Virginia: Dems hold Senate, flip House of Delegates
      • Don Scott is likely speaker-designate, would be first African-American speaker in Virginia’s 400+ years of legislative history
      • Danica Roem wins Senate seat, becomes second transgender state senator in U.S. history, was already first transgender state legislator
      • Dems will likely refer constitutional amendments to 2026 ballot, depending on if they hold the House of Delegates majority in 2025. They have lots of options:
        • abortion rights (!)
        • marriage equality (!)
        • voting rights for ex-prisoners (!)
        • environmental justice/right to healthy environment
        • remove the 30-day limit on legislative sessions
        • allow governor to run for consecutive second term
        • move state elections to even-numbered years
        • prohibit slavery in the state constitution
        • have lieutenant governor elected on joint ticket with governor
    • Kentucky: Andy Beshear wins re-election as governor:
      • Beshear is only the third incumbent governor in Kentucky history to win a second consecutive term, seventh to win re-election overall
      • Beshear is the sole Democrat to survive this election statewide. No telling what will happen with the next Democratic nominee for governor in 2027.
    • Ohio: Issue 1 (abortion rights) and Issue 2 (marijuana) pass, legalizing both.
      • Republican leaders are seething and vowing to attempt repeal of Issue 1
    • Pennsylvania: Judge Dan McCaffrey wins seat on PA Supreme Court, keeping the Democratic majority 5-2.
      • Democrats flip several county commissions, including some like Dauphin which haven’t been held by Democrats in 100+ years.
    • Mississippi: Brandon Presley (D) came close but did not win the governorship.
    • Minnesota and Michigan: Ranked-choice voting had a very good night at the polls in several cities.