A generation, according to one definition, last 18 years. The baby boomer generation, for example, has been historically applied to those who were born between 1946 and 1964 (in other interpretations, that time period combines the Baby Boomers with Generation Jones). Thus, if you follow the 18-year model, you end up with the following timeline:
- 1946-1964 (encompassing the Baby boomers and Generation Jones)
- 1964-1982 (encompassing Generation X)
- 1982-2000 (encompassing Generation Y and some of the present “New Silent Generation”)
- 2000-2018
I would like to pay particular attention to the generations 1964-1982 and 1982-2000. The former was marked by the solidification of television as a communication medium (at the expense of radio), the rise and levelling of the hippie subculture, the stagnation of the Cold War, and the rise of political terrorism. The latter, however, was marked by the introduction of computers and the Internet as a communication medium (at the expense of television), the rise and levelling of the punk and metal subcultures, the end of the Cold War, and the initial rise of religious fundamentalist terrorism.
Then I’d like to pay particular attention to what I call “pivot years”, or specific years within each of these timespans that marked the beginning of trends which continued (in much more evolved and entrenched states) into the next period. My initial placing of “pivot years” lies on each 12th year within each period. Thus:
I’m not prepared to comment on the eventual importance of 1958 to the following generation. However, I am prepared to comment on the importance of the following two dates:
- 1976: Apple Computer was founded. (Microsoft was registered as a corporation to the state of New Mexico this same year)
- 1994: Netscape was founded as “Mosaic Communications Corporation”. (The Yahoo! search engine was launched this same year by Jerry Yang and David Filo at Stanford University, and was incorporated as a business in 1995.)
Both companies have obviously played a preeminent role in the computing arena that continued, in an evolved form, into the following generations. While Apple was founded during the latter age of hippies, it found its greatest exposure during the 1982-2000 generation (when computing and the Internet had first entered the home as niche consumer appliances), and it seems poised to play a lesser role in the 2000-2018 generation. Furthermore, Apple was part of the extremely competitive home computing market that surged from 1976 to 1984.
Meanwhile, while Netscape was founded during the 1982-2000 generation, its products (now under the Mozilla brand) have found an extensive and partially-commanding reach in the 2000-2018 generation (when computing and the Internet have become entrenched and ubiquitous). Furthermore, it was part of the extremely competitive free-for-alls which influenced the computing industry from 1994 to 2001, such as the Browser wars and the Dot-com bubble.
However, if 1976 and 1994 were the pivot years of their timespans, then what about 2012?
What does 2012 hold in store for computing and the Internet?
Personally, I think that it will involve the mobile smartphones and ubiquitous Internet-dependent devices which are so commonplace these days. However, like the previous pivot years, it could very likely involve the following:
- the prior creation of a Web-dependent application that will make mobile or ubiquitous computing devices useful and stimulating to millions of people
- establishment of a slew of companies which rely upon and monetize that medium, and the entry of older-generation companies which will cater to these companies
- the gradual driving down of prices, rates and other financial hurdles (e.g., Internet rates) to record lows and the increasing of Internet capacity and reach to record widths and lengths due to the introduction of competitive prices and disruptive technologies.
This period of initial rat-race competition can last from 2012 to 2018, and may be dependent upon technologies and applications that will be created by as early as 2009 in their most rudimentary state.
What it will be, I have no idea. I can only hope that I will be employed by one of those companies.
